Economy

Why Cutting The Minimum Wage is Ludicrous…

(1) The Government doesn’t pay ANYONE the minimum wage so it has no impact on current public spending (2) There is no security of tenure @ the minimum wage as it is of a “casual” nature (as correctly highlighted by Michael Noonan). This idea that “existing contracts will not be affected” is just a joke […]

2 Seminal Articles on Ireland’s Debt Crisis

Yesterday, from David McWilliams in the Indo: http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/david-mcwilliams/david-mcwilliams-bailout-will-sink-ireland-before-we-can-even-swim-2442878.html And today from Wolfgang Münchau from the FT in the Irish Times: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1202/1224284564382.html As mentioned on this site previously, it is time to test the mettle of the bank debt-holders (preferably as Ireland Inc vs Deutsche Bank/Bank Paribas in the European Courts).  The Irish government must: Secure […]

Dear Angela

Dear Angela, We do not have much time so I’ll dispense with the pleasantaries. We are being offered bailout funds at 6.7% for 9-year money today – is this someone’s idea of a bad joke? That is on the extreme side of rip-off. How can we expect to ever work our way out of €83bn at […]

Green Party Electioneering

http://www.greenparty.ie/en/news/latest_news/plan_will_bring_greater_economic_certainty Is this a new low of blatant electioneering by John Gormley or just twaddle? Watch the TV clip on www.rte.ie and make up your own mind…

Money @ 1.5%

Money from ECB/IMF/EU troika @ 5% is not a runner; interest bill on €80bn @ 5% is €4bn. No can do – 10-year deflationary spiral beckons in that scenario. Need to hold out for the 1.5% rate = €1,2bn interest p/a – thats more do-able. The rate is key.

Shipwrecking the Economy and Capsizing the Lifeboats

Editorial from the Observer today. Ireland has been betrayed by its leaders. The need for a bailout is the consequence of the government’s incompetence. It should pay for its failure It never seemed to matter in the boom years, but strictly speaking, there is no such thing as a Celtic Tiger. The image was coined […]

A 3-yr Breather On Mortgages?

As mentioned on this site previously, the “elephant in the room” from an Irish economic perspective may well be the spectre of the ECB increasing interest rates to cool the Germany economy (currently forecast to grow at over 3% this year). Angela will call the tune, and Jean-Claude the piper will jump.

Office Rents in Dublin

Interesting theoretical paper on office rents in Dublin – indicating that real office rents will start to rise again somewhere between 2014 and 2015… Predicting_Turning_Points_in_the_Rent_Cycle

Richard Curran and the SBP – 31/10/10

Some really telling macro facts from Richard Curran in the SBP recently (courtesy of “Media Management” in the west of Ireland…!): TOTAL BUDGET ADJUSTMENT SINCE 2008: July 2008; spending cuts of €440m announced for that year October 2008; budget involved a €4bn adjustment of €2bn cuts and €2bn in higher taxes January 2009; public sector […]

Christmas Spending…

Interesting report issued by Deloitte recently regarding projected consumer spending in the run-up to Christmas – see commentary below: http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2679139;s=rollingnews.htm 2 items catch the eye: The average spend per household in Ireland will be €1,020, the average European spend is predicted at €590 – seems high In Ireland, on average €120 will spent on socialising […]